Democrats Gained Ground in the 2026 Midterms in Evangelical Counties Trump Won in 2024

In the 2026 midterms, Democrats improved their margins in nearly every heavily evangelical county that Donald Trump carried in 2024.

Among the top 20% of counties by evangelical congregation membership, Trump won 595 in the 2024 presidential election. Of those, 594 shifted toward Democrats in the 2026 races examined.

Thirty-two recorded flipped in 2026 after backing Trump two years earlier.

The pattern was consistent among the counties with the very highest evangelical membership shares. Trump carried 155 of the top 158 counties in 2024. All 155 moved toward Democrats, and five recorded Democratic margins in the unofficial midterm returns.

Several communities saw large these changes while remaining Republican. In Jones County, Mississippi, the Republican advantage narrowed from 46.8 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election to 23.6 points in the 2026 race.

In Mississippi County, Arkansas, the Republican margin fell from 31.6 points to 6.9 points.

Those results show Democrats becoming more competitive in communities where Republicans had held substantial leads.

The analysis compares 2026 Senate or House margins with 2024 presidential margins, using religious membership data from the 2020 U.S. Religion Census. Because the elections involve different candidates and offices, the comparisons measure changes in results rather than individual voters switching parties.